New analysis from the Home Builders Federation (HBF) confirms what many in the sector suspected – Help to Buy delivered – financially, socially, and structurally.

Almost £1.38bn has now been returned to Government, nearly half of all loans have been repaid, and more than 387,000 households – including 328,000 first-time buyers, entered homeownership with support from the scheme. Beyond the households it helped, Help to Buy stimulated development, sustained jobs and accelerated economic output.

Why the numbers matter for the market

Help to Buy wasn’t just a buyer incentive – it was a growth mechanism. The HBF’s findings show:

• £1.38bn returned to date
• £434.1m in 2024/25 alone
• £86bn economic activity generated
• £10bn in tax receipts
• 130,000 jobs supported at peak
• Returns forecast to exceed £2bn

These figures reshape the policy conversation. Rather than a subsidy, Help to Buy looks increasingly like a high-return public investment that unlocked development capacity and bolstered absorption rates across the industry.

When demand is supported, supply responds and confidence flows through the whole chain.

The market without Help to Buy

Since the scheme closed, the strain is visible. ONS data shows average prices remain out of reach for typical earners in most regions outside the North East. Public mood reflects this with 63% of Labour voters believing falling homeownership signals national decline.

Some major housebuilders have introduced their own equity loan models, which is positive but limited. These schemes only support buyers purchasing from those developers, leaving the wider market (and especially SMEs) without equivalent support.

The result is a fragmented landscape.

What this means for housebuilders and developers

• Sales velocity has slowed → build-out follows
  A reduced pool of deposit-ready buyers extends sales periods and increases exposure.
• Land strategy is tightening
  Absorption uncertainty affects viability, particularly in edge-of-town or higher-value settings.
• SMEs are most exposed
  While PLCs can innovate with private schemes, smaller builders cannot carry the same financial burden.
• A new equity loan model could re-open momentum
  Support for 5% deposits could increase buyer accessibility, improve feasibility and re-energise stalled sites.

A functioning first-time buyer market isn’t just social policy, it’s a structural requirement for supply delivery.

Where policy could go next?

The data now available gives policymakers something unusual – proof of return. A refreshed equity-loan scheme, potentially backed through part-developer contribution, could:

• reduce deposit barriers
• support SMEs as well as major builders
• stabilise absorption and sales progression
• stimulate construction and supply chain activity
• deliver net value back to Government

Confidence is the currency the market is lacking at the moment – and a successor scheme could help restore it.

The debate isn’t about the success of Help to Buy, but about how it should be reshaped to serve the needs of today’s housing market.

If you’d like to discuss how evolving policy could affect sales velocity, land strategy or scheme viability, our team is always ready to help review the implications and opportunities.

Contact Neil Gosling.