The Government recently announced its decision to rebalance standard method housing figures by directing growth towards the city authorities including Leicester, Nottingham and Derby.
This Marrons Planning webinar focuses on what the implications are for plan-making across the region and will be led by Andrew Gore, Partner and David Pendle, Associate Director. Covering:
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Webinar transcript
(Please note this is auto-generated and un-edited)
Hi, I'm Nicole Pollard Marrons planning and I'm joined by my colleague Dave Pendle Associate Director morning and a morning, listeners.
0:17
Yeah, so welcome to today's webinar: What we're looking at is a standard method on the implications of this for plan making across the base Maryland's region. Just quickly on your screen, you'll see there's a Chat icon, So you have to put any questions or anything in the Q and A tab. And, we'll try and get to those as time allows. If not, we'll, we'll try and combat to afterwards.
0:51
Just to sort of set out the, the, the, the scope of what we're going to talk about the background and where it's come from. Obviously, standard method is housing the quantum annealer starting point cosmic quadrant for collecting plenty of authorities. We've we've all been across the East Midlands. We will be watching it into of anticipation and see how it's developed. We went from by the terms Newton algorithm position, which came out in, I think it was summer, 2020. That's also some fairly chunky numbers for the laudable authorities.
1:36
It was the same across the south, south the country as well, which I think is what ultimately led to the, the change in standard method in December. So obviously, as you all know, what we, what we then saw was a bit of a rating in a panic from the government about the numbers in the sort of the shy as far as in the more rural areas. I led them to try to isolate the 300,000 per annum figure. They call the the growth. They went back to the old standard method figure and then sort of carved up the remaining mainly growth that they want to deal with and put it in the 20 largest cities in the form of a 35%. Uplift.
2:31
I mean, there's been there's been a lot of sort of opinion and discussion about about how that would work. What we've also seen is alongside the standard method publication, more recent one is changes to a bit of development rights, to try and allow some densification of housing in urban areas. The ability to go up. So it's, there's a suburb and ... or push to develop urban first by the government in 30, 5% is a big push when you look at, when you take into consideration the fact that the vast majority of the city areas couldn't accommodate their own needs. Anyway, because a lot of the tightly drawn boundaries. Yes, they can.
3:22
Go well bought in terms of going now, we know a lot of them, particularly nice. Mainland the right capacity dalby, lest we know, from five years ago, much further A guy that they just can't expand any more outward.
3:41
So, so it's, it's going to come out in the form of unmet need. Regardless of many positions, just got worse now, the 35% data, for this, in terms of sort of reaction from, from local authorities, I mean, it's fair to say that there's been a few papers published recently when sort of tried to talk a lot.
4:07
Yeah. I mean, what we've seen, 2 or 3 things, haven't we. You know, we, we know the cities are skeptical about their ability to me, you know, The standard method plus 35% figure, you know, they weren't able to meet to meet the figure. The original figure that came out. Just just attract less stuff for a second. Lester had figure on the original standard method of about 1700.
4:32
And of course, in and around that time, they were looking at seeing the hazard requirement dropped to about 5 50 through the through the bloodstream leicestershire strategic growth plans. So, you know, definitely a problem in meetings 1700. 1 of the mutant algorithm the figure dropped to about 1100 much more palatable, but still still a level of unmet need that needed to be dealt with. Now they're looking at something like 2350 ish homes, so huge number for them to deal with them. So, that the two reactions that we, we've seen, a first of all, you know, reaction from the cities, the, you know, certainly, senior senior officers at the cities are saying, Call, make that work. And, of course, you know, we've all seen what happened with Bradford.
5:14
The first of the 2000 teach come out and say figure for unmet needs, increased. You know, we've we were maxing out capacity anyway. So, now, what we've got is just more need and it certainly feels that way in the citizen in the smiths. And then, of course, what that then leads to is the need for a bigger amount of redistribution of need. And within the last month or so, we've seen papers from blaby in north-west leicestershire, both of whom you've played with a very straight back.
5:44
Know, you and I were talking about a duty to co-operate, and you teach co-operates, going to go. And people say, I'm actually, what's going to replace a lot of strategic in. How do we do that? It's interesting, because there's been a lot of talk around, these come in broadly the same sort of time, is the discussion around the standard method and 35% of the city's around duty to copyright being abolished. And there's been a lot of sort of hype and fear that the doctor will simply prevent authorities taking growth that will allow them to socialism, shop. Of course, standard method arrived with the book as part of a publication, actually said. The preference would be the vast majority that 35% of leftist dealt within the kidney and the areas so how the subtype is tackling that from your perspective.
6:40
Yeah. I mean, that's absolutely right.
6:41
And I think what's interesting is that, you know, the city take, Lester, again, you know, when we know Lester Wireless Signal, 70, 7800, I think it was met need figure before the pages that north-west and Blaby of published talk about the work that's happening on the state and the common ground, know, with industrial associates to consider strategic planning and redistribution, and a suggestion that the figure is going up to 17,800. Now, in the case of plane, and north-west, what they've both Tony said, Right? That you should co-operate gone members. But let's not get excited about the idea. We can fall back to our standard method figure. The base figure, we will have to deal with unmet need from from Leicester City. And you'll know yourself and, you know, both, who's been involved in in Northwest's, local plan, examination in the Trigger policies in the Past. You know, huge, huge questions for how you plan for the district level, and you're met need, and make sure you get a plant away. And I think what was interesting that you and I were talking about that today was to test the sound or switch to sit there. And, of course, you know, as, you know, they, they, they still require you to take into account all met need within the ....
7:47
Yeah, absolutely. So, in a sense, the pending abolition of the duty to co-operate is not really going to affect Cloud making across the or certainly cause these melons anyway because you've got sort of three H and I use and apply the test. The soundness requires you to deal with those before you can get them apart adopted. Yeah.
8:12
I mean, if you were to be an optimist about this, you'd say, what we've, what will happen is, we'll all save a couple of days examination, because rather than spending two days talking about the duty to co-operate, and whether or not we've passed the legal test, and, You know, say, Of course, a robot, and we're going to talk about housing requirements in a few days, time, You ever heard that, You know, we'll talk about that, under the, under the development strategy, or the housing section. You know, Because it's a tester soundness, and you end up doubling, or, if you're an optimist, you'd say, We'll save that time. But, as a plan, make the the the question: that you, you're faced with the exam, is the same volume, each in your hazard requirements taking into account any unmet need within the HTML. So, the exam questions the same.
8:55
Having said that, of course, the figures within the exam question and our slightly different. Because you know, what we're seeing with with, with all three of those areas are increased housing requirements for the HMIS. So, I think Leicestershire cluster, and Esther, she's going to 750 homes a year.
9:12
Great. And not probably something like 450 homes a year across the life of a plan, you know, sort of 10 years, 15 years, 20 years, if you've got a long-term vision and a 7.5 thousand homes turns into 700, 750 homes, Rather, he attends and 7.5 thousand homes across 10 years. That's a sizable footplate if development to find somewhere, you know. And for that reason, you know, there'll be a lot of talk about how that happens across leicestershire darvish your notes. Yeah. So the volume published a paper, I think it's going to the cabinet old council, local planning meeting next week, very much the same.
9:58
Assured members that whilst the standard method, reduces the client, because they're part of the HDMI. And because of the requirements of the ... deal with, the HSA, says this is a whole Dell going to have to take some dhabi's unmet need.
10:19
Of course, we know from, from the last examination at Adobe, that they weren't, they would the requirements of around 16,000 homes. They ended up taking 11 and the remainder got pushed out to the south, the audition and battling. The question then, that there is, you know, it's three authorities that have come out an oil painting with a straight fat.
10:44
But presumably, at some point, someone will come out politically, the decision that we're going to stick, you know, what, thanks very much, you know, we'll stick with our, with our figure, we know perennial unmet need. And, I suppose the question at that point, will be, what will that mean for an examination of a local plan? And, you know, experience, which suggest, one of a couple of things will happen. Either, You know, it'll take some time to get back. Because you'll need welders within the age made to agree to take that, to take that need, or to feel secure that you're gonna get a ring through an examination that there's no need for you to sweep up. Or you got to look at an examination where you got suspended and then gently advice to go away. And then look at again, commercial north-west, less your course. You know, a similar thing happened with them, with the trigger policy.
11:34
You know, these plans not quite there is just about their suggestions from QCs that you couldn't put a stick and pastrami with it, with a trigger policy. But, you know, that happened.
11:44
Tons around age may follow suit. Of course, north-west Cluster shared success in that. And then they've just gone through the partial review that just been out for modifications As part of that partial review to change that trigger policy brief more life into it. Will not happen in the next batch of rounds in the smiths and, indeed, elsewhere, with the amount of unmet need that we've got to deal with. You know, the huge amount of redistribution asked app, and it feels unlikely. And I guess what that means is that there's gonna be a big job to do now, to try and work out how to redistribute. And of course they've all got different models. Haven't they, you know, I mean, I know you've got your experience in Nottingham share with the greater Not plan for a very different products to last year.
12:27
Yeah, yeah you don't see the ****, which is a different kettle of fish. I mean in this of Nottingham grades lots of area you see the line core strategy, which was adopted in 20 14. There's the one pass, the iron core strategy had planned to adopt in 20 14. Anyway, so you have this scenario where you had a common plan period from 20 11 to 20 28th. So it's it makes the task marginally easier take nothing away from, from the work involved, but it is large, an easy when you have that sort of common plan period.
13:08
I mean, the bizarre thing about the greater nottinghamshire at the moment is that I think it was all bought, Everett Wash had stepped trajectories in 20 14 plans, and all of them kick fan in 20 19, Which, bizarrely is the point when the Plan 20 14 Plan because Dad died, and they can revert to standard method, which we know from Rush Cliff. You know, we'll spend a long time starts around the examination table trying to discuss an appropriate step trajectory and bizarrely that the plan makes its fifth birthday and requirement defaults to standard method. So, the, the the the highest. The peak of the stat trajectory never really binds. Yes. I mean, you know, you almost couldn't write it, could, you know?
14:13
And, I mean, you know, thinking about the pressure, you know, we've just been talking about effective plan making, and how that happens in the pressure on the authorities to two, understand and deal with unmet need. Otherwise, they can't get a local plan in place.
14:27
What, whilst you might find some people are in a, in a period where the ..., they've fallen back from higher plan requirements, back to a lower standard method figure, it's a short-term, short-term fix, in a sense, because in falling back to that level standard method, figure, effectively, saying, my plans out, I know, I don't follow the strategic requirement in the plan, that's more than five years old to smoke five years old. And logic, which sort of suggests that there's more than one. Research the tooltip balance. So, if you're saying your strategy is out of date, you're not going to use it for the purpose of calculating land supply, then, you know, the policies that most important for determining this, this application, or an out of date. Another route to the tooltip balance, and I think would be interesting to see, see where that bites. So, yeah, might be 1 or 2 authorities thinking, you know, that they've been given a stay of execution on land supply but, but you know, that, that, that could come back to haunt them.
15:22
You're absolutely right. You called, on the one hand, move away from a difficult to deal with, sort of stepped trajectory and turned towards an easier to deal with standard method requirement. And then at the same, in the same breath argue, your buttons up to date? So, yeah, you're absolutely right. It, just be interesting to go back to that point you made about the, the trigger policies. I'm just thinking about that, Obviously, is you, if you take into account the fact that, less to, have, said, they could meet their own needs up until 20, 31, than it might, have been easier to get a plan adopted. Without looking lastest need or without, or with just a trigger policy.
16:12
In slightly further back in the, in the plant pay. But not now where we said, you know, 20 31 is less than 15 year plan period away. So, it becomes very difficult, doesn't get into sort of try and look at step two. I look at a trigger policy or to disregard it altogether.
16:35
Yeah, it definitely feels that way. Enemy, you know. My experience the child would have taken the planet through the 2028 against a backdrop of capacity within a to make to deal with growth, and the level of scrutiny that that took place for that was, was difficult, and today, he's going to be much higher. It's got to be much harder because, as you say, you know, we're deeper into the period where cities are saying that they're fuller, know that follow-up. And that capacity is under scrutiny by many people. Not just development industry, but by all the local authorities around them. You know, politicians in the ..., who wants to know that the City of doing everything they possibly can do.
17:14
So, there's going to be that, that level of scrutiny, and this thing going to be the question about the scared of unmet need going, you know, what's, you know, better bigger figure, Potentially harder to redistribute? And examining inspectors are going to have to have to have answers to that on our 11 day in the, sorry. Parallel being the Tests of soundness. So, it's a big job for them, and I guess the question on everyone's lips it will be what, you know, we can leicestershire. We've got the astronauts just sheer growth plan.
17:43
Not sure, what the line core strategies, what's the future for those, those strategies, Do we see them continue more of the same, or is a new is a new answer needed? And then, I know, in Leicestershire, they're looking at a strategic site study very similar. I would think very similar to the one that was undertaken in greater knots subject, consultation late, last year. And, you would think, going through that kind of process. You're affecting saying: what size, if we got, is there anything that we've missed? What are our options here to try and make these big figures?
18:18
And that would probably lead you somewhere to either strategic growth plan, surviving with the same strategy, but bigger figures, or a strategy at the same. But the bigger figure is somehow met, somewhere else, maybe to stand on a settlement or settlements, or you accept economic growth through, through, through the rural areas, you know, that the larger settlement, the large villages.
18:44
And, of course, when we talked about large-scale development, we know that we still need delivery in the short and medium term, which sort of lends itself to smaller size. So, very huge questions, you know, for Leicestershire Invest, and obviously Derbyshire as well.
18:59
Uncertainty about what the answer might be, But a lot of policy offices that are saying, particularly the algorithm, actually, which is where we might end up with those kinds of figures in the Shyest. We need everything that we've got in the stalk of it. You know, so, from that point of view, you know, foot foot frozen, and people in the industry who are looking at what to promote, a lot of suggestions that I wanted to. Because because obviously when we were sort of scientists speculate as to what the housing requirements would be a cost, the, the, the millions. That sort of mutant algorithm, standard method fingers will get a sort of throw out across the spend and we start to look at the age of plans. We were thinking this is a number of authorities here that are going to have a ... for pseudo static method bind.
19:50
So South Ossetia, Roche Cliff, obviously, north-west, blaming, do some high sort of requirements of that nice now grant them.
20:05
I think the promotion of speculative side stuff that felt as though, actually, to be opportunities on the horizon.
20:14
I suppose now what we're looking at is they don't have those opportunities and not necessarily gone away, because the, the numbers will still come out to the periphery authorities on, there's still a requirement for, for, for you to deal with the, the unmet need. And then it's going to be very difficult to get a plan adopted with, with, with, with the sort of different timescales. All the plans, right? Middle C, no child will go to their examinations soon.
20:52
They don't look at that need for pedestrian.
20:56
That plan is going to be a difficulty for the examinee's back to you then going to have other authorities such as north-west us to share who said, Well, we need to get that we've got a timescale in a partial review. We need to do to deal with our substantive review quickly. We call, hang around, waiting for Adnan to be revised in the summer we need to go now. So there's different precious, different timescales. So I feel is going to be very difficult to get the planet all that. So, I think what we could say is that the opportunity is still there, but it will be because of a bit of a plan IHS across particularly cost the leicestershire because there is some disjointed sort of positions and bombmaking. Yes. I think we will probably going to be the broadly similar position, booked, Tilted balance, engaged through a sign up on hiatus.
21:53
Yeah, Yeah. How many, you know, if they are big questions, aren't they? And I suppose, you know, if you accept this sort of two to harvest, is the question about housing requirements, and where do you redistribute to, you know, that that needs to be resolved, understood through some form of having to refresh in leicestershire. And then then agreed, you know, by, by, by the authorities before they then use that and anger for local plans. Through some sort of, strategic growth plan to, or whatever it might be. So there's a question about that requirement. And then there's the question about provision, about land, by what the answer is more strategy looks like to make it happen. So you're absolutely right. That that will take time. And we know that, for the north-west Trigger, and the original date for the triggered by was May 21, and the modification looks to take that back to November 22, and pretty papers talk about, you know, needing that length of time.
22:47
So, from that point of view, you would think that's been informed by, by an understanding of how long they think this process may or may not take.
22:56
And, of course, during that, like that period, a number of local plans will be more than five years old. And there will be questions over whether or not they're capable of providing an up to date. Develop a strategy with a set of upstate sites for those local authorities, and it's no different in Nottinghamshire and ..., as time goes on.
23:16
So, so too hard to that, and I think that's one of the reasons want strategic science studies, so interesting, you know, on the one hand, that talks about pulling in options that they already know about from Schloss. Of course, 1 or 2 authorities are about, to kick off with, called, ... said that there'll be doing one, you know? It's a good time to promote land, you know, to talk about what your options are, if you've not already done it. And think about putting science in. And, you know, as long as you do follow a sort of sensible strategic logic around where your, where your choosing, and what you're looking at, and then not only will you have plan promotion opportunities, but the, some of them are going to tap into an application opportunities because of the tooltip alums. Yeah, I think you're up to about what you said about. The need to follow the logic is what, what we tend to see from a lot of appeal inspect is even worse. Foggia housing, supply show for Ball and you plan to engage is Tilted Balance.
24:16
If you're proposing something that departs heavily from the spatial strategy puts growth where growth because it was never envisaged, then you're still gonna meet resistance from from offices, unappealing inspectors in my view.
24:32
So, I think where there is an opportunity and the tilt balances engage because, to me, the age of the plan, then, as long as you're promoting something that is proportionate, then there's no reason why you can't look at this little smaller villages. Again, as long as that, as long as there's a reasonable likelihood, that village would have had some growth in an emerging plan. That I can't see why. It wouldn't be an argument. And then, equally, as you move up through the hierarchy, towards all badger the cities, where clearly, the, you know, the good opportunities are going to be, especially other opportunities. You have the opportunity to actually present the authorities with a solution, of a sort of scale of the development with Tweets tackles a, you know, a big chunk of that need and perhaps infrastructure with it.
25:33
Yeah, I mean, you're Absolutely, you're absolutely right and you know, the idea of being incredible, you know? look, you're looking for something which, which is a workable solution for, you know, the size of the settlement and its role in the hierarchy than how it fits within the strategy is still going to be there under the tilted balance. Because you don't, the policies don't disappear. They don't get switched off that just aren't produced. Wait. So, you're absolutely right, you know, and understand, sought, sign up to that, and what's interesting about the bigger stuff that you were talking about is what happens again, you know, to use the example of, of love to share because of what we've heard about day 46 expressway, middling connect change and therefore, the approach.
26:15
What we hear is that the, that the national funding that was going to go towards day 46 expressway was predicated on a business case that set the date thought that as a bridge was needed for cross cross region movement. And, the case simply wasn't there, for people can still use them, 169, still use the A one. So, you, know, no need for it at the national level, Therefore, no funding from a lesser. And lesser SharePoint, if you, we know that, there's congestion into the city.
26:42
And we know the radio reach, you know, which are congested, need some kind of East West, North, South relief. And that is a local question arises as a solution that you need, some kind of potentially some kind of route around Leicester. So what you might end up with is a sort of downgraded a 46 Expressway type solution, which is, which requires gross to deliver it. So, you're absolutely right. And when you say, You know, maybe for private sector, having to think about solution on how you back that open, how you go to them and sell it, that, that would be option one. Or Option one is: Can you actually help with that, that, that scale of problem? You know, the local, strategic planning issue? But you know the local strategic planning issue level? As opposed the flip side to that, would be, and this is wise, be so interesting to see what happens with something like strategic growth plan, to kinda get the figures away.
27:33
The need to get away doing that kind of strategy and effectively injecting Sushi Growth Plan one with steroids, you know, and therefore delivering that piece of kit? Or do you need to look at standalone supplements? And, you know, that, they did a strategic site study for greater not, did, went down that route and presented a whole range of different options. And you might expect to see a similar thing happening in leicestershire. Obviously, Derbyshire a little bit further, further down the road. You know, or rather not quite as far down the road, and they haven't yet done that kind of work. Yeah, but the same same applies there.
28:05
What's the attitude, that strategic plan, making level between those partners for urban edge growth or standardized settlements or morphs things in the rural area or some kind of hybrid? So earlier when I said policy officers generally went onto the Newton algorithm are going to need everything.
28:22
Need actually everything. If the scale of unmet need is such that we end up back at noon algorithm level, figures in the shy, as it might be that we need, we need everything. So you promoting your growth as the private sector, the response to the exam question of what's needed for that city area, city region, or no credible options within villages or standardized settlement. So, so, it almost feels as if, whilst the new standard method took a step back, and this idea that we squeeze it back into the cities, which everyone is saying, simply isn't gonna happen. So, step backwards. In actual fact, when we when we retrace our steps and come back to what the distribution might look like, it's gonna be a whole host of promotion opportunities, right? The way across the East Midlands. And it'll just take time to get that, that, when you think that thinking about this stuff. Now, you know, strategic science studies happening now. Not now's a great time to be promoting.
29:14
Yeah, yeah, I mean, what we wanted to do this webinar is, is, is not just, so try not to just finish on this question, but really to try and sort of joy and say, well, what, web the opportunities. And I think, as you've just set out, as we have discussed that, that's where the opportunities are generally speaking, right across the paste. And just as long as what you're proposing is proportionate, I think what we're, what Liz Olds do is get in touch and we get an outbreak. We can share all sort of knowledge and understanding about the the plan making strategies and what's happening for what we may think will happen going forward and local politics sensitivities around a particular area.
30:14
Whether we think there's a credible argument that a particular settlement will get growth, so, yeah. I suppose we would urge you to get in touch, and we can. We can have some further discussions on that.
30:28
OK, thanks a lot. That brings us to the end of the webinar, and hope you found it useful and relevant, if you would like any more info on anything discussed today, than when you got a specific query on anything, then, put this. Put that in the the feedback form, which will be on the screen. And made enough of this discloses. And.
30:51
All that remains says, thanks for joining us. Yep, I'll echo that. Thank you for joining us. You know, we enjoyed talking to you about this stuff, and if there's any questions you've got, please feel feel able to get in touch.
31:04
Thanks.
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