Scotland Housing Need 2040 Report

Scotland’s housing emergency: a call for immediate intervention

Citing pressure on homelessness services, rising property prices and high levels of temporary accommodation, the Scottish government and 12 of the country’s 32 councils* have declared housing emergencies – signalling that intervention is needed.

Our ageing population and the cost-of-living crisis only look to exacerbate the problem unless we act now and prioritise the needs of future residents.

What’s in the report?

Utilising analysis from socio-economic experts at Marrons of population projections from the National Records of Scotland and government data, we have built a national and regional picture of Scotland’s housing need in 2040.

There is a significant need for general market homes to accommodate the growing population. According to the government’s minimum all-tenure housing land requirement, at least 352,500 homes need to be constructed across Scotland by 2040.

As well as meeting this basic need, more could be done to provide greater choice and acknowledge the positive impact of specialist and affordable homes as part of a functioning housing market, much of which can be facilitated through market-led development at scale.

The report predicts where the highest number of first-time buyers and family homes will be required and, separately, where the greatest need for affordable housing lies. The report also highlights areas with the greatest ageing populations and predicts under-occupation of homes by those aged 65+, ultimately identifying opportunities for right-sizing properties and later living accommodation.

We show which areas will have the greatest proportion of those of student-age and, therefore, where the demand for purpose-built accommodation will be highest. It also places a spotlight on each region in Scotland. The data follows trends and highlights significant areas of need and opportunity.

If we are going to meet the needs of the population in 2040, we need to start building the right homes today.

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